Determined Leebo vs. Chewbacca, a mathematical evaluation

Hi, my name is Chris and I’m from Hamilton, Ontario. I figured that since people will be comparing the two YT-models, I’d be comparing two similar pilots, both of whom deal with crits they’re dealt in a unique way, and are both PS 5. Please note I will not be discussing the ships, just the abilities, and will be taking one particular EPT into account.

So some of you pulled out your Outrider expansion packs (or knew before hand from spoilers) and saw this card:

Be honest, you looked at the spoilers for this
Be honest, you looked at the spoilers for this

Choosing your crit seemed underwhelming, as you got a defensive version of this seldom used pilot, with even fewer options:

Its as if thousands of 'TIE Fighter' fans cried out in joy, then were suddenly stunned silent. I feel something terrible came out of great potential
Its as if thousands of ‘TIE Fighter’ fans cried out in joy, then were suddenly stunned silent. I feel something terrible came out of great potential

Also disappointing was comparing it to someone who, instead  of ‘picking your poison, is simply immune to it:

May I suggest a new strategy, let the Wookiee win
May I suggest a new strategy, let the Wookiee win

So, many of you were likely disappointed. Two choices instead of the three given by one of the least chosen pilots in the game, and pales in comparison to someone else. Its like FFG has the determination to make Leebo a poor choice. Until you notice this:

Yes, I did just use this card's title ironically. I apologize.
Yes, I did just use this card’s title ironically. I apologize.

Now that’s interesting, not flip discard. So while Chewie can stop a critical from being…critical, he still has to take the damage, but this card can even mitigate that. Wow! So what are the chances of crit you draw being a pilot critical? Well, sadly they’re pretty slim:

8/33. Yeah, that’s why determination only costs 1 point.

So, Leebo, when you draw a ship critical for your first of the two cards you have an 8/33 chance to draw a pilot crit. If that’s a hit, good, use determination to cancel it. If not, 8 or the remaining 32 cards are pilots. Also, keep in mind that Chewbacca can pick determination and cancel pilot crits (its in the FAQ, for those wondering) for Leebo to gain the advantage when both have determination, you need the second critical to be of the pilot type.

The chances of getting each particular pair of crits:

case 1: Ship-Ship: 600/1056 (56%)

case 2: Pilot-Pilot: 56/1056 (5%)

case 3: Pilot-Ship: 200/1056 (19%)

case 4:Ship-Pilot: 200/1056 (19%)

Note: 1056 came from multiplying 33 and 32, as after drawing a card, you only have 32 left. All numbers are rounded. There is a 1% margin of error.

We will do two comparisons, with the difference being if Chewie has determination. Leebo will have determination in  both examples.

When they both have determination, they would both take no damage in cases 2 and 3 (24%), with Leebo taking a crit and Chewie taking 1 damage in case 1 (56%), while only in case 4 does Leebo take no damage, but Chewie does (19%)

However, if Chewie doesn’t take determination, cases 2 and 3 become identical to case 4 in the above scenario, with only case 1 being advantageous. Keep in mind in both scenarios, Leebo getting to choose which ship crit to take will also minimize how game-changing it is (for example, weapons malfunction won’t effect you much if you take the Outrider title, and having Leebo as your pilot makes this card more likely)

In the end, the choice of who to play is yours, with even both being an option. I personally have played Chewie a lot, and look froward to doing the same with Leebo.

May the force be with you, pilot

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5 thoughts on “Determined Leebo vs. Chewbacca, a mathematical evaluation”

  1. I tried Leebo out last night at BKG and for the most part worked really well, I also tried using auto blaster with outrider upgrade and lets just say I don’t want to talk about it… Being able to deny damage let alone crits its huge on a big base especially one with amazing defensive options. I’m thinking a Leebo Build with Determination and Lando Crew + Experimental interface will be the bees knees.

    1. I’m actually considering auto blaster on a PS 9 Dash for fun. The only problem is that you’ll have to waste an action to reposition with barrel roll and I can’t figure out how to modify his attack dice.

      1. Experimental interface + Lando (crew) would make it possible. Its by no means a guarantee, but given the lore, that’s probably part of the fun .

        I’ve also been wanting to run Leebo and Chewie beside each other to see who contributes more

  2. I never considered Leebo at all, but after reading this article, I might give him a try. The Determination combo looks pretty legit! I like the breakdown, it was very insightful.

  3. The obvious answer is “both.”

    I’m thinking something like:
    – Chewbacca / Push the Limit / C-3PO / Millenium Falcon / Tactical Jammer
    – “Leebo”/ Determination / Heavy Laser Cannon /Recon Specialist / Outrider

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